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by Melissa Nicholas

Flights Aren’t Being “Cancelled” En Masse. Here’s What’s Actually Going On.

ETG co-founder, Melissa, shares that long-haul flights to Asia remain busy and stable, despite alarming headlines about fuel shortages.

The headlines sound dramatic. Perhaps a little too dramatic.

If some recent reports are to be believed, airlines are apparently on the verge of cancelling flights left, right and centre because of jet fuel shortages.

But the reality is considerably less alarming than the headlines suggest.

What’s largely being reported as “mass cancellations” is, in many cases, airlines doing what airlines have always done: adjusting schedules, consolidating quieter flights and tweaking capacity to match demand.

That may not generate quite as many clicks as “aviation chaos”, of course.


 

Most of the “cuts” are about seats, not entire routes disappearing.

When airlines talk about reducing capacity, they are frequently talking about reducing the number of seats available rather than abandoning routes altogether.

That might mean:

  • combining two quieter flights into one fuller service
  • switching to a different aircraft type
  • trimming frequencies on weaker routes

Passengers may occasionally see a schedule change as a result. But that’s very different from the idea that airlines are suddenly grounding fleets and scrapping long-haul travel.

In truth, airlines constantly make these decisions behind the scenes. Sophisticated systems monitor bookings in real time and adjust routes accordingly. Fuel prices simply mean carriers are being slightly quicker and sharper with those decisions than they might have been previously.


 

Short-haul routes usually feel it first

If there are dozens of flights a day between two cities, it’s relatively easy for an airline to consolidate passengers onto fewer departures if demand softens slightly.

That’s why short-haul and leisure routes are usually the first places airlines make adjustments.

For example, if demand for a package holiday route to somewhere like Tenerife weakens, airlines may reduce flights because they operate both the aircraft and the holiday packages themselves.

Long-haul routes are a very different proposition.


 

Long-haul flights to Asia remain busy

Flights to destinations across Asia continue to see strong demand, particularly as reduced capacity through parts of the Middle East has shifted passenger flows elsewhere. In peak periods, many of these services are already extremely full.

From an airline’s perspective, long-haul routes are often among the most commercially valuable flights they operate. Cancelling profitable services with strong demand makes very little financial sense.

And crucially, we have not seen cancellations affecting our clients’ long-haul holidays because of fuel supply concerns (nor do we currently expect to).


 

So should you worry?

There is a sizeable gap between the reality of airlines fine-tuning schedules and the impression created by headlines suggesting travel is grinding to a halt.

Schedule changes have always been part of flying. What’s happening now is largely airlines tightening up efficiency in response to operating costs — not a collapse in international travel.

If you’re travelling to Asia or elsewhere long haul this year, there’s every reason to look forward to the holiday itself rather than worrying about the headlines.